Strategic Assumptions vs Metrics

Strategic Spark: Episode 2 — Strategic Assumptions: More Important Than Metrics

In this episode of Strategic Spark, we challenge a common belief: that success is all about hitting your metrics. Instead, we explore why your underlying assumptions — the bets you make about your market, your customers, and your business environment — might play an even bigger role in driving long-term success. Learn how to spot risky assumptions, validate them, and stay agile in a changing world. Featuring real-world examples like Intel vs. NVIDIA, this episode is packed with insights for leaders looking to future-proof their strategy.

What you’ll learn:

• Why treating strategy as a "theory" can make you a more adaptable leader.
• How unchecked assumptions can quietly undermine even the strongest KPIs.
• The role of tools like Quantive Strategy AI in validating business assumptions.
• How assumption management helped NVIDIA outpace Intel.

Practical ways to identify and challenge your own strategic assumptions.

Show Notes:

[00:00] Introduction to Strategic Spark and the surprising idea that assumptions may matter more than metrics for business success.

[01:00] Why metrics alone can mislead leaders — understanding strategy as a theory based on assumptions.

[03:00] The formula behind effective strategy: Policies, measures, resources, and the critical role of assumptions.

[04:20] Example: A sushi bar betting on pink rice — how simple assumptions can drive success or failure.

[06:00] How to identify and challenge your hidden assumptions through data and diverse perspectives.

[07:30] The importance of dynamic strategy — continuously testing and refining assumptions as markets shift.

[09:00] How platforms like Quantive Strategy AI help track, validate, and adapt assumptions in real-time.

[10:00] Real-world example: Intel vs. NVIDIA — how contrasting assumptions shaped two different outcomes.

[12:00] Practical advice: How leaders can embed assumption management into their strategic process.

[13:30] Closing thoughts: Success comes from understanding and adapting the "why" behind metrics, not just the numbers themselves.